Where Things Stand Now
Posted on October 12, 2010In the horse-race that is politics, Columbus Day signifies the last turn before the finish line. We have now passed the last turn. So where do we stand now?
According to the RealClear Politics poll of polls, if the election were held today, Republicans would:
- Pick up 9 seats in the Senate, throwing the Upper Body into a tie.
- Pick up 211 seats in the House, with Democrats only picking 185, and the 39 others being too close to call.
- Pick up 7 Governors seats.
- In the Congressional generic ballot, Republicans enjoy an 8.2% lead over the Democrats.
- President Obama’s job approval stands at 45%, and his disapproval stands at 49%, historically bad numbers for a midterm election.
It is not pretty out there. Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times today writes that even once Democratic safe seats are in tough shape. “Republicans are expanding the battle for the House into districts that Democrats had once considered relatively safe, while Democrats began a strategy of triage on Monday to fortify candidates who they believe stand the best chance of survival.” Zeleny points to two House seats in Ohio – Zach Space and Charlie Wilson – where Republicans now believe they have a good shot at winning.
The Democrats understand that their situation is increasingly desperate, and they are turning to desperation tactics. Over the weekend, the White House accused the Chamber of Commerce of using foreign money to buy elections, a charge that even Bob Schieffer thought was fanciful. In fact, Schieffer asked David Axelrod incredulously, “Is that the best you can do?” in what one journalist called a fitting epitaph for the Democratic majority.
According to a new USA Today poll, “six in 10 Americans say the government has too much power, and nearly half agree with this alarming statement: "The federal government poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedom of ordinary citizens." This doesn’t bode well for an Obama Administration that seeks to expand government power even more.
Another troubling sign for the Democrats comes with who will actually show up to vote. According to ABC’s web site The Note, “the latest ABC/Washington Post poll shows Republicans are still more “fired up and ready to go” than Democrats. When asked if they were “certain” to vote this year, 77 percent of Republicans said yes compared to just 61 percent of Democrats. This 16-point advantage for Republicans is unchanged from last month.” There is no evidence that the Democrats are closing that gap or that any of their other last-ditch efforts are working.
Even George Soros, the man who has almost single-handedly funded the left wing over the last 6 years, has basically thrown in the towel on this election. As the New York Times put it, “Mr. Soros, a champion of liberal causes, has been directing his money to groups that work on health care and the environment, rather than electoral politics. Asked if the prospect of Republican control of one or both houses of Congress concerned him, he said: “It does, because I think they are pushing the wrong policies, but I’m not in a position to stop it. I don’t believe in standing in the way of an avalanche.”
Mr. Soros is right. The Republican avalanche is coming and there isn’t much the Democrats can do about it.
The only way this Republican horse can lose this race is if it breaks a leg in the last furlong. Otherwise, you can expect a new Speaker to be sworn in this coming January, and new direction for the country in the coming year.