Bush Vs. Obama
Posted on August 23, 2010I was on the treadmill this morning, enjoying my vacation, when I saw the DNC ad on the television. The Democratic National Committee, incredibly, has decided that the last two years of presidential leadership from Barack Hussien Obama has no bearing on the upcoming midterm election. They have decided to run against George W. Bush.
They are spending a lot of money to cast this election as a contest between George Bush and Barack Obama. So, I have to ask the question: If George Bush were to run against Obama right now, who would win?
The DNC seems convinced that Obama would win in a landslide. That is why they are so confident in their strategy. But is that true?
A recent poll showed that in the 40 most competitive seats held by Democrats, Bush is more popular than Obama. This poll was conducted by a Democrat, by the way.
Obama won a convincing victory against John McCain two short years ago. But there were a couple of things turning in Obama’s favor. First, the financial crisis reared its ugly head just two months before the election. Second, the Iraq War was just starting to turn around, not enough to help McCain. Third, McCain ran one of the worst Presidential campaigns in history, and was one of the most disappointing candidates in history. Fourth, after 8 years of President Bush, the American people were ready for a change.
Despite all of those factors, McCain still got 47% of the vote, which is pretty impressive given the fact that the McCain campaign was a complete basketcase.
President Obama has had a pretty good legislative run for the last two years. He signed into law a massive takeover of the health care system, he also penned into law a takeover the financial industry. He took over General Motors and fired the CEO. He was able to pass out nearly a trillion dollars in stimulus money to a variety of Democratic special interests.
Despite that track record, Obama is suffering at the polls. When it comes to his handling the economy, Obama has a 56% disapproval rating. His approval rating hovers in the low forties. And he has gone out of his way to anger a variety of interest groups, including Jewish voters, who are appalled by his treatment of Israel.
If magically Bush were to announce that today he is going head to head at the ballot, here is what the map would look like. Obama would lose North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana, states that helped to make the race a rout against McCain. Iowa would be close, but I bet Bush would compete there. Same with Wisconsin and Minnesota. Bush would win back Montana and Colorado. Florida would swing back to Bush (think Israel), and even New York would be in striking distance. New Hampshire would swing back to Bush, and the Solid South, West Virginia and the border states, most Midwestern states would stay solid for Bush.
The fact of the matter is that George Bush would in all likelihood trounce Obama, because Obama is far too liberal for this country. The fact that the Democrats want to make this a contest between Bush and Obama is pure stupidity on their part. They are better off trying their hand at demonizing the Tea Party and hoping to marginalize the Republicans who are sure to run strong this fall.
George Bush is not on the ballot this fall, and most Republicans are happy that's the case. There is still some Bush fatigue out there, and he clearly made some mistakes when he was President. That being said, if Bush were to have the chance to run against Obama, knowing now what we know about BHO, my guess is that Bush would win and win fairly convincingly.