John Feehery: Speaking Engagements


A Theory on Jobs

Posted on July 2, 2009
A Theory on Jobs

According to the Associated Press: “Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent. Workers also saw weekly wages fall, suggesting Americans will have little appetite to spend and the economy's road to recovery will be bumpy.”

That is not good news for the Democrats who are nervously looking at midterm elections and wondering what there prospects will be.

I have a theory, and since my blog is called The Feehery Theory, I am going to offer it now. For every percentage point of unemployment above 8 percent, the Democrats will lose ten seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

For example, if the unemployment rate stays at 9.5% in November of next year, the Democrats will lose 15 seats in the House. If unemployment rate goes to 10%, they will lose 20 seats. If it goes to 11%, they will lose 30 seats, and if it hits 12%, they will lose forty seats. Anything above that, and we are talking tsunami.

The Democrats now officially own the economy. Al Franken’s arrival as the sixtieth vote in the Senate takes away any excuses that they might have had. Doubt is starting to creep in about the efficacy of the so-called stimulus package. The American people are starting to wonder about the jobs that were promised by Mr. Obama and his staff.

For this theory to work, Republicans have to be in a position of offering clear solutions that will create jobs. They have to move beyond the familiar mantra of tax cuts. And they cannot be seen as rooting for a higher unemployment rate.

Democrats seem pretty clueless when it comes to private sector job creation.

The climate bill they passed last week is a job-killer. Their tax plans that hit corporations the hardest are job killers. Their health care plans will make it harder for small businesses to hire more workers. Their efforts to help big labor will hurt struggling companies create jobs. Their intrusive regulations, maddening demands for more paperwork, and general antipathy to the global economy all conspire to put people out of work.

As the unemployment rate continues to rise, the fortunes of vulnerable Democrats will continue to fall. The higher the rate goes, the wider the playing field becomes for the GOP.

Today’s job numbers are a sign of bad things to come for House Democrats.