If there is any iron rule to the political game, it should be: Expect the unexpected. Things change, and sometimes they change rapidly.

At the beginning of President Obama’s term, the conventional wisdom declared that the Republican Party was going to splinter and collapse. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) even openly mocked the plight of the GOP, saying that she hoped that the Republican Party would be strong again someday. Well, be careful what you wish for, Madam Speaker, because that day is just about here.

The conventional wisdom at the beginning of this year held that while Republicans had a shot at capturing the House, the party had no shot at regaining control of the Senate. But with the sudden passing of Senate President Pro Tem Robert Byrd (W.Va.), the declining health of some other Democratic senators and the fading political fortunes of such stalwart liberals as Barbara Boxer (Calif.) and Patty Murray (Wash.), that assumption has been turned on its head. The Senate has a clear shot, while the House looks like a sure thing.

The conventional wisdom coming from Washington after the Arizona immigration law passed was that the American people would believe it went too far. In fact, many Republican strategists made that exact point.  Read more...