Nikki Haley, South Carolina gubernatorial election, 2010

I have a theory about the differences between a Republican primary and a general election.  To win a Republican primary, you have to win a majority of white men.  To win a general election, though, (and this is in Senate seats and in politically competitive House seats), you have to win a majority (or at least get fairly close) of white married women.

The gender gap has long been the bane of the GOP.  Women in general have turned against the Republican Party, especially African American women, and younger single women.  While the GOP has consistently done very well with white men, winning that demographic overwhelmingly for as long as I have been voting, the gender gap has kept the GOP from achieving the dominance that some have long predicted.

The soccer moms played a crucial role in propelling Bill Clinton to two triumphs in the 1990’s, just as the security moms played an equally crucial role in the two Bush victories in 2000 and 2004.  White women proved to be the critical voting bloc for Barack Obama in 2008, as John McCain’s cowboy-themed maverick just didn’t click with the chicks.  Read more...