Turning Conventional Wisdom
Aug24
By John Feehery
The conventional wisdom at the beach house needs to be turned if Mitt Romney is going to be able to win this November.
My wife’s girlfriends all gather together for a week each August at the beach, and I had the opportunity to visit with them for a couple days.
I asked them point blank who they thought would win the election. They all said Obama, even though they all wanted Romney.
This small focus group is not atypical.
Anytime I ask a professional woman between the ages of 40 to 50 who she thinks will win the election, they all say Obama.
Romney has some work to do with this demographic, convincing these ladies that he has a credible plan to win the White House.
And if he is to turn the conventional wisdom to his side, he has to start at the convention.
Romney is doing far better in the polls than he deserves, given the state of the Republican Party and the media’s campaign to make the GOP look even sillier.
So I continue to believe that he is in a strong position to win this election.
What Romney lacks, I believe, is a practical plan to convince more Republican-leaning women that he will not only win this election, but also that he can govern effectively.
Picking Paul Ryan as his running mate did little to advance that cause. I like Paul, and I think he has excited a Republican base that is clearly not that excited with Romney, but the Ryan budget is not exactly great fodder for those wanting practicality in government.
Here are some ideas for Romney as he proceeds down his campaign path.
- First, he has to convince women voters that he will listen to their concerns. I think one of the things that turned people against Obama was his refusal to listen when it came to his health care plan. Romney has a long record of listening, as a governor, as a business leader and as someone who helped to run the Olympics. He should highlight that record.
- Second, Romney has a long record of working with people who disagree with him. He is not a “take it or leave it” kind of guy. He will cut a good deal, but he will cut a deal. As governor of Massachusetts, he was able to make the state work and pass some important legislation. He can work with Republicans and Democrats in a collaborative fashion.
- Third, Romney is not a Ron Paul libertarian who will destroy the safety net. He needs to talk about how he will strengthen the safety net but will also give folks a hand-up, not a hand-out. He has put Obama on the defensive on welfare to work requirements, and I think that has been effective. But he has to lay out his own plans to help those in need.
- Fourth, he needs to put some practicality into his program. He is still stuck in a primary mindset. He still talks in ideological jargon that is off-putting to many female voters. Give us some practical things you will do once you become President (and don’t just say repeal Obamacare).
- Fifth, better highlight female surrogates. Kelly Ayotte is a working mother, a rising star in the party, and somebody who gets it. Campaign with her (if she will let you). Highlight other female business and political leaders. Make sure they pass the likeablity test. Ayotte is the best, but there are others, like Marsha Blackburn. Condi Rice is another important figure (and she apparently has a terrific golf swing).
And don’t run away from your record in Massachusetts. You did not govern as a right-wing zealot when you were governor. Let the voters know that.
Conventional wisdom among the ladies is the Mitt Romney is going to lose. He needs to change that perception if he wants to win this November.
This race is so fluid to me and there are so many things that can happen between now and November that I think Romney will probably get a nice bump in the polls out of a good convention speech but I doubt if it is “make or break” with so much time left in the race after the convention. How many local down ballot Republicans will run away from Paul Ryan’s budget (some are already doing that), how effectively will Obama and the Democrats be able to exploit Ryan’s budget (especially Medicare) & keep it in the news cycle (also Todd Akin), and who knows what may happen that we do not already know about right now (the economic crisis did not hit until the middle of September in 2008)? We just do not know these answers right now and I do not believe in gypsies and fortune tellers who claim that they can see the future. I have always said that if they could, then how come they cannot see the next day’s winning lottery numbers (forget about what will happen in weeks or months from now)?
This race looks so much like 2004 to me where you have an incumbent who is not super popular but a challenger who so far does not look like a much better alternative. 2004 was so close that about 55 or 60 thousand votes in Ohio going the other way would have turned the electoral vote in that election. Tea Party activists will come out and vote for Ryan but Democratic activists (and others) who fear Ryan’s Medicare budget will also be motivated to come out and vote even if they are not fully happy with Obama. I would call this a 50/50 race as of right now where just about anything could happen on either side including mistakes and gaffes that could be game changers. It would probably tilt toward Romney if he and his Super PACs very heavily outspend Obama and his major Super PAC in order to frame the message.
Both campaigns in my opinion seem to be playing “a Rocky 100 type of movie” where weak candidates (Rocky at 100 years old) and campaigns are making unforced mistakes and are NOT running the best campaigns. That is my honest view of this Presidential race as of right now!
I could do a better job and run either campaign better than it is being ran right now! I would hit Romney on Medicare and not let up on it (and other things) if I was helping Obama and I would organize a SuperPAC to hit Obama hard on same sex marriage in order to get out the evangelical vote in very large numbers which would help a lot to solve Romney’s “Mormon problem” that he has had with so many evangelical voters (and other things) if I was helping Romney.
Marsha Blackburn Voted FOR:
Omnibus Appropriations, Special Education, Global AIDS Initiative, Job Training, Unemployment Benefits, Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations, Agriculture Appropriations, FY2004 Foreign Operations Appropriations, U.S.-Singapore Trade, U.S.-Chile Trade, Supplemental Spending for Iraq & Afghanistan, Flood Insurance Reauthorization , Prescription Drug Benefit, Child Nutrition Programs, Surface Transportation, Job Training and Worker Services, Agriculture Appropriations, Foreign Aid, Debt Limit Increase, Fiscal 2005 Omnibus Appropriations, Vocational/Technical Training, Supplemental Appropriations, UN “Reforms.” Patriot Act Reauthorization, CAFTA, Katrina Hurricane-relief Appropriations, Head Start Funding, Line-item Rescission, Oman Trade Agreement, Military Tribunals, Electronic Surveillance, Head Start Funding, COPS Funding, Funding the REAL ID Act (National ID), Foreign Intelligence Surveillance, Thought Crimes “Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act, Peru Free Trade Agreement, Economic Stimulus, Farm Bill (Veto Override), Warrantless Searches, Employee Verification Program, Body Imaging Screening, Patriot Act extension., Supplemental Appropriations, Patriot Act Extension, Debt Deal, South Korea Trade Agreement, Omnibus Appropriations, Line-item Veto, Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act (CISPA)..
Marsha Blackburn Voted AGAINST:
Ban on UN Contributions, eliminate Millennium Challenge Account, WTO Withdrawal, UN Dues Decrease, Defunding the NAIS, Iran Military Operations defunding Iraq Troop Withdrawal, congress authorization of Iran Military Operations, Withdrawing U.S. Soldiers from Afghanistan, Libya Troop Withdrawal, Libya. stopping Indefinite Detention.
Marsha Blackburn is my Congressman.
See her “blatantly unconstitutional” votes at :
http://mickeywhite.blogspot.com/2009/09/tn-congressman-marsha-blackburn-votes.html
Mickey